The hospitality industry is facing a complex landscape of food inflation in 2025, with certain key ingredients seeing significant price fluctuations. Cooking oils, cocoa, and sugar are among the most affected, with shifting global supply dynamics creating challenges and opportunities for businesses. Here’s what’s happening and how hospitality operators can adapt.
Rapeseed and Olive Oil: A Tale of Two Markets
Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with a drop in yield reported in October 2024.
This is the first price increase since January 2022, marking a significant shift for businesses reliant on rapeseed oil.
Conversely, olive oil prices are dropping, offering a potential cost-saving opportunity for restaurants and food manufacturers.
Cocoa: Historic Low Stock Levels Push Prices Higher
Cocoa stocks are at their lowest level in history, leading to substantial price increases.
Major cocoa-exporting countries are struggling due to poor weather, policy shifts, and a lack of investment in production.
The lack of stock means no mitigation options for major brands, pushing up costs for chocolate-based products.
Financial Times visible stock reports confirm the trend, signalling further volatility ahead.
Sugar: A Rare Case of Deflation
While many food categories are seeing price hikes, sugar prices are actually falling.
This deflation offers some relief for businesses reliant on sugar in their products.
The impact on overall pricing, however, is limited compared to inflationary pressures in other key ingredients.
How Hospitality Businesses Can Adapt
Switch to Cost-Effective Alternatives – If rapeseed oil remains costly, businesses may shift to olive oil or other vegetable oils where possible.
Plan for Cocoa Price Increases – Chocolate-heavy menus should consider alternative dessert options or adjust pricing to reflect cost changes. A number of operators have also explored alternative brands.
Negotiate Long-Term Supplier Agreements – Securing pricing on key ingredients in advance can help manage uncertainty.
Looking Ahead
While some ingredients are experiencing price relief, others continue to challenge cost management strategies. Hospitality businesses that remain flexible and proactive in adjusting menus and sourcing alternatives will be best positioned to navigate the complexities of 2025’s food inflation landscape.
How The Full Range Can Help
At The Full Range, we help hospitality businesses stay ahead of food inflation by sourcing cost-effective alternatives and securing competitive supplier agreements. With rapeseed oil prices rising and cocoa stocks at historic lows, we assist in finding viable substitutes and bulk or forward buying specifically to support chocolate. By leveraging our expertise in procurement and supply chain management, we ensure your business remains profitable and resilient in a volatile market.
